Thursday, January 31, 2013
Why Study Finance?
For those outside Finance, it is often viewed as a necessary evil that
is irrelevant to other areas of the corporation such as technology. A recent survey by CFO Publishing
discusses nonfinancial risk for technology companies. These risks
include items such as the ability to hire and retain quality employees,
performance failure of vendors and suppliers, the breach of the
company’s electronic or online data, and the failure to meet targets for
business/customer growth. While you might think that such risks have no
relation to Finance, there is in fact a relationship to Finance for
every one of these risks. As Bob George, the CFO of the aerospace and
defense components manufacturer Esterline Corporation, states “Even
though we label these nonfinancial risks, ultimately they will impact
the company’s balance sheet and income statement in very significant
ways. The financial community must be active in those processes, even if
they’re not influencing them on a day-to-day, decision-making basis.”
No matter what area of a corporation you examine, every risk or
opportunity has a financial impact that will ultimately affect the
success or failure of a business.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
When Receivables Rise
One way that many companies have increased cash conversion cycles is to
increase the accounts payable period. While this helps the company, it
also means that the supplier now has a longer accounts receivable
period. Large companies will often unilaterally inform small suppliers
that they will increase the payables period. For small companies, the
resulting increase in the receivables period can be devastating. During
the recent recession, many small suppliers accepted the new terms forced
on them because they were afraid of losing business. But many small
suppliers are starting to fight back. For example, when one company was
informed by a customer that they would be increasing the payables period
from 30 days to 45 days, the supplier stated that their quote was based
on 30 days, not 45 days. An increase in the payables period would have
to result in a 10 percent price increase. The payables period went back
to 30 days. Although many small suppliers feel trapped by large
customers, there are often ways to reach a compromise that satisfies
both parties.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Investor Sentiment
An indicator that can be used in behavioral investing is investor
sentiment. Recently, TD Ameritrade and Fidelity Investments started
indices based on the investor sentiment of the account holders at the
respective firm. Many traders view investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator,
that is, if sentiment is strongly positive, bet against the market, and
if sentiment is low, bet on the market. Recently, most investor
sentiment indicators are showing a high level of investor confidence.
So, is the market ready for a downturn?
Thursday, January 24, 2013
It's Market Efficiency By A Length
Five years ago, famed investor Warren Buffett placed a bet with the
founders of the Protégé Partners hedge fund that the S&P 500 would
outperform a hedge fund index chosen by Protégé partners over a 10-year
period. At its heart, the bet was about market efficiency, that a group
of most well compensated investment gurus could not outperform the broad
stock market. At the five-year mark,
the S&P 500 is up 8.69 percent, while the five hedge funds picked
by Protégé are up only .13 percent. This marks the first time in the
past five years that the S&P 500 is ahead of the hedge funds. The
winner gets to choose the charity that will receive the $1 million plus
prize. What does this bet mean for you? A former investment banker gives her view.
The Driverless Car And Capital Budgeting
With any capital budgeting process, estimates of sales, costs, etc., are
important, as is the recognition that there can be significant external
forces that affect your estimates. A recent article in Forbes
discusses the side effects of Google's driverless car. For example,
governments will lose revenue from the elimination of speeding tickets,
red light violations, and other traffic tickets, but may save since
fewer police officers will be needed to oversee traffic violations.
Gasoline sales would plummet, hospitals would have fewer patients, and
auto and health insurance premiums would fall drastically since there
would be fewer accidents. In any capital budgeting process, you should
be aware of external factors that could affect your projections for a
project since these factors can affect your analysis. Of course, you
also need to be aware that there may be disagreements in these
projections. For example, the article assumes that if driverless cars do
become available that auto sales will fall since there will be a fleet
of cars used for everyone, not private ownership of an individual car as
is the current model. There is a good chance that the fleet option is
idealized and that even with driverless cars, there will still be a
large number of individual owners. In any case, in the textbook we
discussed using scenario analysis for base-case, best-case, and
worst-case projections. Including external factors such as the possible
changes caused by driverless cars is another scenario that could be
examined in any industry affected by the driveless car.
Inflation In The Afterlife
Our textbook discusses how to deal with inflation in cash flows,
namely, discount real cash flows at the real interest rate or discount
nominal cash flows at the nominal interest rate. Since our focus is
corporate finance, we do not deal with possible causes of inflation. A
recent presentation by economist Yoram Bauman may lead to a better
understanding of hyperinflation in the afterlife.
Nokia Stock Down On Dividend Cut
Finnish cell phone maker Nokia is expected to suspend its annual dividend payment. The dividend, which Nokia had been paying for over 20 years, cost the company
€750 million ($996 million) per year. The company stated that the
savings would give it flexibility. Nokia has €4.4 billion ($5.87
billion) in cash, a 22 percent decrease from the previous year. The
announcement resulted in an 8.2 percent stock price decline.
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