Forever 21 Turns 22

Forever 21, the store known for its trendy fashions among teens and young adults turned 22 today when the company filed for its second Chapter 11 bankruptcy since 2019.  During the 2019 bankruptcy, the company closed 150 of its 534 stores and was brought out of bankruptcy by label owner Authentic Brands and mall operators Simon Property and Brookfield Asset Management. This time, Forever 21 is not as lucky as the company has announced liquidation plans.

Airbus Delays Flight

Airbus has been a proponent of hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft, stating that it wanted to have the first plane in the air by 2035. Now, it appears that Airbus was too ambitious in its goal as it has delayed plans for the new jet. Airbus did not give a new target date, but noted that the technology was 5-10 years behind the pace needed to bring the plane to the skies by 2035.

Deriving Options

What do olive presses, Las Vegas, and random walks have in common? The Black-Scholes Option Pricing model! A really interesting Veritasium video walks through a brief history of options and the mathematics behind the Black-Scholes model. And while the video does a good job of explaining option basics, it also discusses some of the beauty behind the math.

Project Titan(ic)

In 2014, Apple was rumored to have approved Project Titan, Apple's development of an electric car. In 2015, Apple formally introduced the new project. At its height in 2018, Project Titan employed 5,000 people. Now, nearly a decade later after it started, Apple announced that it is shutting down Project Titan, thereby exercising the option to abandon. With shrinking demand for electric cars, Apple must have believed that spending more money on the new car isn't worth the payoff, even though Apple had reportedly already spent more than $10 billion on the project. We will likely see a write off announcement in the next several months detailing the total spent on the project. Apple has utilized another option as it also announced that many of the Project Titan employees would begin working on AI technology. Fortunately for Apple, it doesn't appear the money spent on this project will sink the company.

NYCB Dividend Cut

Banks stocks are generally affected by interest rates and New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is no different. NYCB has a large amount of loans tied to New York City apartments and commercial real estate. With high interest rates, New York City rent control policies, and changing demand for commercial real estate in New York City, investors are concerned about the bank's future performance. On January 31, 2024, the company announced that it would slash its quarterly dividend from 4.17 to $.05, a 70 percent cut. Investors were none too pleased as the stock dropped from $10.38 to $6.47, a 37 percent fall in one day. To see this, check out the stock price chart from finance.yahoo.com below.

The Shortest Treasury Bills

As we mentioned in the textbook, generally the shortest Treasury bills issued are 13 week maturity. However, given the recent debt ceiling problems, the Treasury issued cash management bills (CMBs), with a one day maturity. On Friday, June 2, the Treasury sold $15 billion in one day CMBs, to be issued on June 5 that mature on June 6. Over the past 25 years, the Treasury has held six CMBs auctions with a maturity of one day. And on June 1, the Treasury auctioned $25 billion in three-day bills.

Accounting Fiction?

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal notes that as of May 26, 77 percent of the 485 companies in the S&P 500 that had reported earnings beat earnings, compared to the historical rate of 66 percent. What is even more surprising is that the earnings beats are 6.9 percent above expectations, compared to a 4.1 percent historical average. But accounting choices, which have been labeled as potential earnings manipulation, may be the cause. For example, Google extended the life of its server infrastructure from four years to six years. The extension added 6 cents per share to earnings due to lower depreciation. The company also shifted employee stock awards from January to March, which also increased reported earnings. And Carvana, which was expected to lose $2.03 per share only lost $1.51 per share. The company had taken charges in the previous quarter when used car prices had plummeted and expected to sell cars for less. When used car prices increases, the company unwound those loses, increasing earnings per share by $.48, almost all of the earnings beat. 

A Green NPV

European low cost carrier Ryanair announced a new project that will install Split Scimitar winglets on each of the company's Boeing 737-800s. The installation is expected to reduce fuel consumption by 1.5 percent and reduce CO2 emissions by 165,000 tons per year. So, the project is green for the environment, but is it green for stock holders? A quick calculation shows that it is. Based on the numbers, Ryanair spent €1.14 billion on fuel in a recent quarter, which amounts to €4.56 billion per year. A 1.5 percent savings in fuel costs is €68.4 million per year. This savings results in a payback period of 2.92 years. Assuming a 10 percent discount rate and 20 years of operation, the NPV is about €382 million. Sounds like a green, green project to us.   

Your Song (Is For Sale)

Any stream of cash flows can potentially be sold for the present value of its cash flows. And one of the biggest cash flows being sold recently is an artist's song catalog. The owner of a song catalog receives the cash flows from the royalty paid whenever a song is played. It was announced yesterday that Justin Bieber's song catalog was sold for a reported $200 million. And although we agree that this is a tidy sum, it is still smaller than the $500 million that Bruce Springsteen or $300 million that Bob Dylan received last year for similar sales. The price isn't cheap as song catalogs are reportedly being sold for 30 times annual royalties.

Future Stock Returns

As Mark Twain once said,  "Prediction is difficult - especially about the future." And while investors would wish otherwise, predictions about the stock market are especially difficult. Many investors will use historical returns as an estimate of future returns. However, the job of an analyst is to make stock market predictions based off additional evidence. Recently, Vanguard, one of the largest mutual fund companies in the world, released its 10-year annualized forecast for financial markets. Vanguard is estimating only a 4.7% to 6.7% annual return for large-cap U.S. stocks and a 5.0% to 7.0% annual return for small cap stocks. So will the stock market achieve its historical average return over the next 10 years, or is Vanguard correct? Check back with us in 2033!

It Was In My Other Pocket

Have you ever been short on money and gone through your clothes, only to find a $20 bill that you had forgotten about? We are sure that you were relieved. The same thing just happened to cryptocurrency exchange FTX, which filed for bankruptcy back in November. FTX attorneys announced that the company had found $5 billion in cash, liquid cryptocurrency, and other liquid investments! Of course, it appears that there may be other pockets to check as the total value of missing customer assets is $8 billion.

Liquidity and Bankruptcy

As investors have learned, like any other investment, cryptocurrency is subject to volatility. The recent bankruptcy filing of crypto exchange FTX shows, this volatility can be extreme. For example, the Ontario Teachers' Pension plan wrote down $95 million due to the collapse. As you probably know, bankruptcy occurs when liabilities are greater than assets. However, bankruptcy can result from a finer distinction between liabilities and assets, namely liquidity. In the case of FTX, the company had $8.9 billion in liabilities and $9.6 billion in assets. So was the company forced to declare bankruptcy? Liquidity. When you look at the balance sheet, FTX had $900 million in liquid assets, $5.5 billion in less-liquid assets, and $3.2 billion in illiquid assets. Think about it like way: You owe $10,000 at the end of the week but your only asset is a $100,000 house. Yes, your assets are greater than liabilities, but you likely won't be able to sell the house and receive the cash for the sale by the end of the week, so you could be forced into bankruptcy. But FTX had other problems as well. John Ray, who was appointed to oversee the FTX bankruptcy and has overseen other large bankruptcies such as Enron, stated "Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here."

It's Bobby Bonilla (Edwin Diaz) Day!

The New York Mets famously deferred $5.9 million in salary payable to Bobby Bonilla in 2000, instead paying the former $1.2 million per year from 2011 through 2035. Now, the Amazing Mets are at it again. The team just signed a deal with relief pitcher Edwin Diaz that was announced as a five-year, $102 million contract. Under the terms of the contract, the team will defer $5.5 million per year in 2023, 2024, and 2025, then $5 million per year in 2026 and 2027. In exchange, the team will make annual payments to Diaz through 2042. To complicate matters, there is an option year for 2028 and if the team picks up the option, none of the salary is deferred. It appears that the Mets like really long-term payments!

Furniture Hedging

Although many people may not consider sports gambling as a hedge, a Houston furniture store owner successfully did just that. Jim McIngvale offered purchasers of more than $3,000 in furniture double their money back if the Houston Astros won the World Series. McIngvale has offered similar promotions on other sporting events in the past, but to date, none have worked out for customers. However, when the Astros won the World Series on Saturday, McIngvale was obligated to pay customers back. To hedge his risk, his first bet on the Astros was a $3 million bet in May at 10-to-1 odds. He added about $7 million more in bets over the summer at average odds of +750. Because the Astros won the World Series, he received $75 million from various sports books to offset the refunds payable to customers.

Buying An Annuity

While you now know that, in general, an annuity is an equal payment with a finite number of payments, how do annuities work in the "real world"? To give you an idea, check out Charles Schwab's annuity calculator. Notice, the website shows three different payment options. The first option, "For my lifetime (single life)", offers the highest payout per period. Using a mortality table for annuities, the insurance company estimates the number of payments on the expected life of the annuitant. If the annuitant outlives their expected life, payments are still made until their demise. However, if someone signs up for this type of annuity and dies immediately, no payments are made by the company. The second option, "For my lifetime and someone else's lifetime (joint life)", the number of payments are based on the expected number of payments based on the expected life of both individuals named in the contract. Again, if either party outlives their expected life, payments are still made until both parties pass away. Finally, "A set period of time (period certain)", the number of periods that payments will be made is fixed when the annuity is first issued. The interest rate used by annuity issuers in all cases is based of current market interest rates when the annuity is first issued.

Dollar Strengthens

Amid high inflation, rising interest rates, and a faltering stock market, one bright spot has been the performance of the U.S dollar. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has risen 17 percent against the British pound, 25 percent against the Swedish krona and Japanese yen, and an astounding 40 percent against the Argentinean peso. Two currencies that have strengthened compared to the dollar are the Mexican peso and Brazilian real. 

EVs Raise Cash

EV makers Nikola and Lucid both announced secondary stock offerings today. As we mentioned in the textbook, SEOs often have a negative effect on stock prices, and these announcements were not exceptions. Nikola announced a $400 million stock offering, to be sold at the market price. The stock price dropped about 10 percent on the announcement. For Lucid, the company announced an $8 billion shelf offer to be sold over the next three years. In this case, the stock "only" dropped about 7 percent.

Chinese Companies Go Dark

"Going dark" typically means that a company delists its stock from an exchange. Today, three Chinese companies announced plans to go dark from the New York Stock Exchange. What is interesting is that the companies will still be listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The reason for delisting from the NYSE is that American regulators have warned Chinese companies that they would be forced to leave U.S. exchanges unless they allowed regulators to see the records of the company auditors.   

Stock Repurchase Tax

The Senate recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Major components of the Act include spending on climate change, increased IRS spending, and measures to lower the cost of prescription drugs. In order to pass the Act, a last minute change to get the necessary votes was a 1 percent excise tax on stock repurchases. As we showed in the text, dividends and stock repurchases affect a company and investors in much the same way. The tax may push companies toward dividends, although since the new tax wouldn't take effect until 2023, analysts are expecting large repurchases to be completed by the end of 2022.

Unexpected Inflation

As we discussed in the textbook, stock prices move when unexpected news comes to light. Economists expected that inflation for July would be 8.7 percent, lower than June's 9.1 percent. Instead, it was announced today that July's inflation was "only" 8.5 percent. The stock market reacted dramatically as the S&P 500 jumped about 2 percent and both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 jumped almost 3 percent. And for investors in Disney the news was even better: EPS was $1.09 compared to the $.96 estimate, and the subscriber addition was 14.4 million streamers versus the expected 10 million. With the combined market news and company news, Disney stock jumped about 7 percent.