American Airlines Fights Acquisition

Airlines have often suffered losses and were hit particularly hard during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, American Airlines (AA) has amassed significant losses. In fact, AA has an accrued tax benefit benefit due to $16.5 billion in net operating losses. To help avoid a hostile takeover which would allow the acquirer to claim the tax benefit, as well as a takeover for any other reason, AA has implemented a rights offering. Under the terms of the rights offering, AA will issue one preferred stock purchase right in the form of a dividend to each shareholder if an outside investor acquires more than 4.9 percent of the stock in the company. Each right will allow investors to purchase one share of stock at a 50 percent discount. This would serve to make a hostile takeover more expensive.

Apple Shines

Moody's recently upgraded its rating on Apple's long-term debt. Apple joins Microsoft and and Johnson & Johnson as the only three U.S non-financial corporations with AAA rated debt. Moody's credits the better credit rating with substantial operating scale, large installed base of products and services, strong customer loyalty, and brand positioning.  

Peloton And The City

In HBO's limited series reboot of Sex and the City, a Peloton bike has a major role. And even though Peloton was aware that the bike would be used, it was unaware (spoiler alert) that a major character would suffer a fatal heart attack after using the bike. And while using a product in a television show is generally more of a Marketing topic, it is also related to Finance as Peloton stock crashed 11.35 percent the day after the show first aired. Shares of the company are down 73 percent for the year, so this is not the first time the stock's foot slipped off the pedal.

A Cold Secondary Stock Offering

You can own a sports team. The Green Bay Packers are offering 300,000 shares of stock at a price of $300 per share.There are currently a little over 5 million shares of the Packers outstanding. Of course, you will never receive a dividend and have no say in the operations of the Packers. Since you are now a part of of an NFL franchise, there are rules: You cannot own another NFL franchise, you can't act as an agent for any NFL player, you can't publicly criticize the NFL, its management, coaches, or officials, and you can't bet on any NFL games. It doesn't sound like there is much green investing in Green Bay stock!

Zillow Abandons Flips

On September 13, Zillow Chief Operating Officer Jeremy Wacksman stated that ''We, over time, believe this can be a service that is offered to the majority, to over 50 percent of the housing stock." Wacksman was referring to Zillow's foray into house flipping. Given Zillow's unique data, it should have inside data for the housing market. Instead, Zillow has decided to abandon house flipping, laying off 25 percent of the workforce. Zillow wrote off $304 million in losses due to house flipping in the third quarter, with another $240 million to $265 million in losses to follow.

Rockin' In The Free Markets

Investors have been looking for alternative investments and will be able to invest in a guitar from an alternative metal band. Gibson is using Rally to sell ownership of collectible guitars. The company recently sold 13,000 pieces of a guitar owned by Guns N' Roses guitarist Slash for $5 each. Of course, the company did not cut up the guitar, but sold a fractional share. Other guitars by Tony Iommi of Black Sabbath and Adam Jones of Tool are scheduled for sale. Of course, as with any collectible market, it appears that guitars that are not especially rare are having prices plucked up with the prices of rare guitars. The real question is will investors fret over the investment in the future or will it turn into real Money?

Hamsters Spinning Wheels

Early critics of the efficient market hypothesis claimed incorrectly that market efficiency meant that a monkey throwing darts at a list of stocks was just as good an investment strategy as any other. Now we have hamsters spinning wheels. Mr Goxx, a hamster, makes cryptocurrency investments by spinning a wheel. Two men in Germany have created a cage in which Mr. Goxx spins a hamster wheel. Where the wheel stops selects the cryptocurrency for investment. Then, Mr. Goxx enters one of two tunnels for a buy or sell order. Switches on the wheel and tunnels automatically execute the order. Since Mr. Goxx has begun investing in September 2020, his return is above all major stock market indices. Are you ready for a hamster investment advisor? We hope not!

Bonds May Save Reefs

Belize is well-known for its coral reefs and scuba diving, including the Great Blue Hole, which Jacques Cousteau called one the five best dive sites in the world. Now, Belize may help save its coral reefs through bonds. Belize has a "superbond" outstanding, which is a combination of previous bond restructurings. The par value of $572 billion is part of Belize's 133 percent debt-to-GDP ratio, which the International Monetary Fund has stated is unsustainable. Belize is engaged in talks with bondholders to exchange $550 for every $1,000 in par value. Under the terms of the agreement, Belize will invest a significant amount in support of marine conservation aimed at protecting its reefs. Currently, 50 percent of bondholders have agreed to the terms, although 75 percent of bondholder support is necessary for the proposal to pass. 

SPAC Issuance Slows

Early in the year, SPACs were all the rage as a way to sidestep the IPO process. In January, 97 SPACs went public compared to 27 IPOs.  In July, there were only 32 SPACs compared to 57 IPOs. In fact, many SPAC investors are selling their shares or redeeming shares when a deal is announced. Reasons for the slowdown in SPACs are increased SEC scrutiny and the fact that 438 SPACs that had raised over $130 billion combined have yet to find a merger partner. Additionally, as Jay Ritter from the University of Florida notes, 94 of 131 SPACs that have announced mergers since October 2020 are trading below the initial $10 price.

Buyback Excise Tax Proposed

In the textbook, we discussed how buybacks have a tax advantage over dividends because it results in a lower effective tax rate for shareholders. A new law being proposed in the Senate would levy a 2 percent excise tax on all funds used for share buybacks. Although the statement released by the Senator Ron Wyden, who is proposing the buyback tax, essentially argues that buybacks are ill-advised, the evidence is not quite as clear.

Muni Bonds Go Green

The issuance of green muni bonds is a small part of the overall muni bond market, but the segment is growing. In 2012, $2 billion of green munis were issued, but that grew to $234 billion in 2020 and a projected $375 billion in 2021. Although green corporate bonds can be used for a variety of investments, green muni bonds are often used to fund clean power, water, and sewage systems. Green muni performance compared to regular muni bond is not clear as green bonds outperformed prior to 2019, but underperformed by a large margin in 2020. As with any muni bond, green muni bonds are a source of tax-free income.   

Fidelity Goes Behavioral

Fidelity Investments recently hired Gilbert Haddad to head the company's decision science area. The data gathered from the new initiative is "..really like applying behavioral finance and behavioral science to understand” what the portfolio managers and analysts are good at or not. The data will also be used to "help them understand their own biases" in the investments made by the manager to help them avoid bad behavioral decisions. 

Chinese Companies Face Delisting

China has recently asserted more control over private companies in that country. Now, the SEC is threatening to not approve new company listings for companies based in China and possibly delist currently listed NYSE and Nasdaq companies based in China. Most Chinese companies do give direct ownership, but often use the variable interest entity structure (VIE). In a VIE, a shell company is created in a foreign jurisdiction like the Cayman Islands. The shell company has a claim on the profits and assets of the parent company, although whether the claim is enforceable is debatable. As a result, the investment is more like an investment in a company in the Cayman Islands. Since the SEC requires full and fair disclosure, the SEC feels this unusual corporate structure should come with more warnings.

Identifying A Ponzi Scheme

If you are not familiar with a Ponzi scheme, it is generally a fraud in which early investors are paid out from contributions made by later investors. The Ponzi scheme usually ends when new investments dry up. A recent article on CFO.com highlights how to avoid a Ponzi scheme. We would like to make sure you read one particular concept, that is, "high returns with little or no risk." As we discuss extensively in the textbook, the only way to a higher return is with increased risk. Although we would all like higher returns with little or no risk, centuries of investment history show that such an investment is not possible. If it were, investors would flock to that investment, driving the return down.

SEC Backs Nasdaq's Diversity Requirement

Back in December, the Nasdaq approved a diversity requirement for the boards of companies listed on that exchange. Every company must have at least one female board member and one from an underrepresented minority. If a company fails to do so, it must explain in writing why it does not. Now, the SEC has approved the new policy. The NYSE has an Advisory Board aimed at connecting diverse candidates with open board positions, although there is no specific diversity requirement. 

Adidas Kicks Out Reebok

In 2006, Adidas purchased Reebok for about $3.8 billion. The goal was to increase the company's presence in the sneaker market to better compete with Nike. In the past several years, Adidas' sales have grown, while Reebok's sales have been poor. As a result, Adidas has agreed to sell Reebok to Authentic Brands Group for about $2.5 billion, abandoning its investment in Reebok.

Working Capital Hit

The COVID-19 economic downturn affected many areas of business, including working capital management. A recent survey by the Hackett Group highlights some of the effects. For example, for the largest 1,000 publicly traded U.S. companies, the receivables period increased 1.5 days, the payables period increased 4.4 days, and the inventory period increased 4 days. The interview with Craig Bailey of the Hackett Group is an interesting read as to how the economic turmoil affected business.

Negative Amortization

In the textbook, we discussed how a loan is normally amortized, with a portion of each payment going toward the interest accrued during the period and the remainder paying down principal. A recent article highlights the dangers of negative amortization, that is when the interest paid each period is less than the interest accrued during that period. One student graduated in 2010 with $50,000 in debt. Because his payments each month did not cover interest, his balance is now $110,000. One study cited in the article finds that 25 percent of student loans in 2009 had a higher balance in 2019 because of negative amortization. Although the article attributes part of the problem to high interest rates (relative to current interest rates), we should note that a fixed interest rate also guarantees that the interest rate won't rise. In other words, the optimum choice of fixed versus variable rate is generally only knowable in hindsight. The real issue is granting a negative amortization loan. Of course, the only negative amortization lender we know of is Uncle Sam.

GE's Stock Price Jump

If you own shares of GE, you may have noticed that the share price jumped 700 percent in one day! The reason is that GE underwent a 1-for-8 reverse stock split. As a result, the stock price increased from $12.95 to about $104. CEO Larry Culp stated that the split was undertaken to be more comparable to its peers. Typically, a reverse stock split is done after poor stock performance. However, GE's stock has increased by about 20 percent so far this year. However, as we note in the textbook and the article notes, stock spits really don't amount to much more than keeping a stock price in a familiar range.

Volkswagen Clawback

Volkswagen's Dieselgate scandal has been ongoing for the past five years. Recently, former CEO Martin Winterkorn has agreed to pay the company €11.2 million ($13.7 million) in a clawback. Although Winterkorn was not found to be responsible for the development of the defeat device, he was in a meeting when the defeat device was discussed. In his role as CEO, he breached his duties by not investigating the defeat device and its possible use. Additionally, former Audi CEO Rupert Stadler agreed to a clawback of  €4.1 million ($5 million) for failing to investigate whether engines developed by Audi were rigged to cheat emissions tests. 

The Market Beats Robots!

A recent article highlights a retirement issue, "lost" 401k accounts. It is estimated that 24 million accounts containing $1.35 trillion in assets have been left in 401k accounts when someone leaves an employer. And while these can be claimed easily, we want to make sure that you don't forget about a retirement account. You can often leave a 401k account with an old employer if you like the options and costs available, but you can also roll over the account tax-free into an IRA. We did want to point out one sentence in the article:

Those robo accounts have returned almost 9% annually over the past three years, while popular S&P 500 ETFs have seen annualized returns of nearly 14% over the past 10 years.

Over the past three years, it is even worse for robo advisors as the S&P 500 has returned about 18 percent over that period. One important caveat is that robo advisors likely have a more diversified portfolio, including bonds and money market accounts. This would reduce the risk of robo advisor accounts, but, as you see, can also reduce the return.

 

China Cracks Down on IPOs

The IPO market has been hot this year, with more than 200 offerings raising over $70 billion. Of these IPOs, 30 were Chines companies, making 248 U.S. exchange listed China-based companies totaling $2.1 trillion in market value. Now, new rules by the Chinese government may slow Chinese domiciled companies listing on U.S. exchanges. The Chinese State Council stated that it would update the rules for "the overseas listing system for domestic enterprises"and tighten restrictions on cross-border data flows and security. China has already launched an investigation into ride-hailing app Didi. And Nasdaq-listed Weibo has announced plans to go private. 

Bond Ratings Jump

In early 2020, COVID-19 lockdowns slowed the economy and resulted in a record dollar amount of debt being downgraded. By the end of the year, the default rate on corporate bond reached 6.8 percent. Now, with the economy recovering, corporations are becoming healthy and a record $127.9 billion worth of debt was upgraded in May 2021. In early June, a record $340 billion had been upgraded over the previous 10 weeks. And in even better news, Moody's projects the default rate will fall percent to 1.7 percent by December.  

Real-Time Payments

Many of you are probably familiar with near instantaneous money transfers using Venmo or Paypal. And while we discussed next-day ACH transactions in the textbook, in 2017, an interbank payment system was unveiled, the real-time payment (RTP) network. While only 130 banks out of the more than 9,600 financial institutions in the U.S. have adopted the system, these adopting banks cover 60 percent of demand deposit checking and savings accounts. Several challenges have prevented the adoption of the RTP system. For example, businesses do not seem to be concerned about speeding up payments by one day, especially in the current low interest rate environment. The biggest hurdle appears to be infrastructure, but expect this hurdle to be reduced when Jack Henry & Associates and Fiserv come online later this year. But the RTP system does provide other perks, including 24/7/365 access, instant confirmation, and settlement finality, meaning the sending bank can't revoke or recall a payment. 

Green Bonds?

During 2020, a record $270 billion in green bonds were issued, and green bond issuance is on pace to surpass that record this year. And while we discussed covenants and the ability of bondholders to undertake legal action against the bond issuer for violating these covenants, as a recent article in the Wall Street Journal highlights, green bond investors have little to no recourse if the bond issuer does not use the bond proceeds for green projects. Even the definition of a green bond is somewhat nebulous. For example, Luxembourg packaging manufacturer Ardagh issued $2.8 billion of green bonds to fund the partial merger of its metal can unit. The green component of the bond? Ardagh committed to using an equivalent amount of the bond issue to purchase more recycled materials and increase energy efficiency. The bond was certified green by a leading independent agency.

Basketball TVM

Former NBA star Allen Iverson signed an endorsement contract with Reebok back in 2001. One of the terms of the contract was that Iverson would receive $800,000 per year for the rest of his life, plus a trust fund of $32 million on his 55th birthday on June 7, 2030. As an article about the agreement explains, Iverson may have received the worst of the deal, but we do have several problems with the analysis in the article. First, it is unlikely that Reebok would have offered Iverson $32 million in 2001 or $32 million on 2030. Reebok funded the trust with less than $32 million in 2001 with the intent that it would be worth $32 million in 2030. The second issue is a time value of money issue. The article notes that if Iverson had invested $32 million in 2001 at 5 percent, it would be worth $87 million in 2030. Check this for yourself and see if you don't agree that the future value of $32 million for 29 years at 5 percent is about $131.7 million

Shrinkflation

You have heard of inflation, deflation, and stagflation. Recently, you may have noticed shrinkflation. Due to rising costs of raw materials and labor, producers have begun to shrink package sizes. For example, ice cream maker Tillamook announced that it was shrinking the size of its cartons from 56 oz to 48 oz, a 14 percent shrinkage. Since consumers tend to look at price rather than package size, the move is intended to keep sales constant. Of course, shrinkflation is really inflation in another guise. In fact, the United Nations FAO Food Price Index make its biggest leap since October 2010, and reached its highest level since September 2011. Shrinkflation is not a new phenomenon, but it is an indication of rising inflation. 

LIBOR End Is Near

The Financial Stability Board (FSB), which coordinates financial rules for G20 countries, outlined its new transition polices to move away from LIBOR by the end of 2021. A number of U.S. dollar LIBOR rates will be available until the end of June 2023, but can only be used for legacy contracts. The FSB is encouraging the use of overnight risk-free rates, which include SOFR in the United States and SONIA in Great Britain.

Corporate Cash Holdings Increase And Decrease

In a recent survey by the Association for Financial Professionals, 40 percent of companies increased cash holdings in the first quarter of the year, but 34 percent of companies reduced cash holdings. The 34 percent decrease in cash holdings is the largest in the survey history dating back to January 2011. Compared with the same period last year, 22 percent of companies have lower cash balances, while 43 percent have large cash balances. What these numbers indicate is uncertain. It could be that the reduction in cash balances is due to cash flow problems, or companies could feel more confident in the future and reducing excess cash.

GE Kicks Factoring

General Electric is serious about reducing the company's use of factoring. In 2018, the company factored about one-half of its receivables, but it expects eliminate all factoring in the near future. In 2016, the company even went so far as to sell receivables up to 5 years ahead of sales in order to increase the then current cash flow. A consequence of eliminating factoring is is that it will reduce cash flows this year. In fact, GE expects cash flows for 2021 to take a hit of $3.5 to $4 billion, but it will also reduce the interest paid on factoring. The elimination of factoring is also a signal that GE management is confident of future cash flows.  

Convertible Issues At Record Pace

There have been 97 convertible bond issues totaling $54.3 billion so far this year, a record pace. The average coupon on these bonds has been 1.41 percent, with 28 convertibles issued at a zero coupon rate. And the average conversion premium is 39 percent. One issue with convertible bonds is that dilution may occur if the bonds are converted. Companies often pay $10 million or more to protect against dilution. Some of the biggest issues and conversion premiums occurred in February and March, before interest rates rose. For example, in February, Expedia issued $1 billion in convertibles with a conversion premium of 72.5 percent, and Airbnb issued $2 billion in convertibles with a conversion premium of 60 percent. The large conversion premiums to indicate a high level of confidence by bond buyers.

I Bonds

While most people are familiar with EE savings bonds, fewer are familiar with I bonds. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal highlights I bonds and the advantages of these bonds. One major advantage is that I bonds are yielding an currently very high interest rate of 3.54 percent. This is impressive when you consider the bonds are virtually risk-free. By way of comparison, 30-year Treasury bonds are yielding about 2.25 percent. I bond yields are based on the inflation rate and can change every six months. You cannot redeem I bonds for 12 months, and if you redeem within five years, you pay a penalty of the last three months of interest. You can buy electronic I bonds at www.treasurydirect.gov in any amount from $25 to $10,000, or paper I bonds in $50, $100, $200, $500, or $1,000 as a tax refund. One way to tell that I bonds are good investments is that the government caps the annual electronic purchase at $10,000 per individual, with another $5,000 possible through the tax refund purchase.

Ford Abandons Brazil

A century ago, Henry Ford lost a considerable amount attempting to become a rubber baron in Brazil. Now, Ford is retreating from Brazil again. Over the past decade, the company lost about $7.8 billion on its Brazilian manufacturing, or about $2,000 per car, so the company exercised its option to abandon. Ford recently announced that it would close its plants in Brazil, paying an additional $4.1 billion to get out of commitments in the country, for a total loss of about $12 billion. Other car companies are also losing money in Brazil, with Volkswagen Brazil losing about $4.1 billion since 2011. Sometimes it is better to abandon a plan rather than continue to lose money.

Morningstar Stock Valuation

So how do analysts value a stock? A recent video from Morningstar, one of the most trusted independent sources for stock values, discusses the methodology it uses. If you watch the video, you will hear a lot of methodology similar to what we discussed in the textbook, especially discounted cash flow analysis. Similar to what we discussed, the value of the stock increases by the capital gains yield and will change as new information is received. Notice an important point: Morningstar only recommends a stock if it believes that is fair value is significantly above the current market value, which implies Morningstar does not believe the market is semistrong form efficient.

SPAC Issues Fall

SPAC issuance this year has been at a record pace, but an accounting change by the SEC appears to have slowed the market dramatically. The SEC recently announced that warrants issued by SPACs would be classified as liabilities, not equity. In March, 109 SPACs went public, but that number is is down to 10 in April. Warrants are typically granted to early investors as extra compensation for the cash invested. Valuing these warrants will be expensive and it appears that many companies may not have the internal capacity to do so. And the warrants will need to be valued every quarter when the company files its 10-K.

Apollo Shareholders Rule

One trend in corporate finance is that many companies have moved to unequal voting rights. For example, Comcast, Alphabet, Facebook, Lyft, Pinterest, and many others have some type of dual class share structure, with different voting rights for each share class. Investment management company Apollo Global Management is feeling different. Recently, former CEO Leon Black proposed that the company move to one share, one vote. As Mr. Black stated:

Moving to a “one share, one vote” structure to ensure that the voting rights of our shareholders align with their economic interests by eliminating the Class C voting stock, as well as examining a move to a single class of common stock.

Apparently, Mr. Black feels that shareholders should be counted by the number of shares owned.

 

Organizational Charts

Organizational charts can have very different structures when comparing companies and an individual with the same duties in one company could have a different title in another company. Elon Musk certainly does. In a recent SEC filing, Musk has added a new job title of "Technoking of Tesla." And in a nod to Game of Thrones, CFO Zack Kirkhorn is now the "Master of Coin." Tyrion would be proud!   

Cash Versus Earnings

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal notes that banks sharply increased their loan loss reserves in 2020 in response to the pandemic. Increasing such reserves reduces a bank’s reported profit, and decreasing them improves the profit picture. By 2021, the loan losses had not emerged at the level the banks anticipated, so their profits will be rising as the loan reserves are decreased. According to the WSJ, “U.S. banks are sitting on a pile of cash that could turn into billions of dollars of profits.” There’s only one problem. Loan loss reserves are just accounting entries. Increasing and decreasing them impacts reported profits, but has no cash flow implications. As JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said "It's ink on paper . . .we don't consider that earnings." We recommend a review of Chapter 2 for the WSJ reporter.

Supply Chain Issues

Increasing demand for products in the U.S. has resulted in supply chain problems for many companies. For example, shipping from one Chinese manufacturer, which was 30 days a year and a half ago, is now three months and shipping costs have increased 50 percent. U.S. ports are a major bottleneck and ships can sit offshore for weeks at a time. Overall, global delivery times are the second longest on record. Shortages are the most severe for semiconductors, as demand increased when workers bought electronics to create home offices. In fact, the German Association of the Automotive Industry announced that only 240,000 passenger cars were made in February, about half of the November output. The reason given was the shortage of semiconductors.

Mutual Funds Underpform...Again

In our discussion of market efficiency, one trait of an efficient market is that it is difficult for investors to outperform the market. The results for mutual funds for 2020 are in and it appears that the market won again. For large-cap equity funds, 57.1 percent underperformed the S&P 500, the 11th straight year less than half of large-cap funds outperformed the S&P 500. Over a 20-year horizon, only 4 percent of large-cap funds outperformed the index, while 10 percent of mid-cap funds and 6 percent of small-cap funds could make that claim. It appears that the market is tough to beat.

Women Outperform Men

Who are better investors, women or men? A recent interview with proprietary trader Kathy Donnelly discusses reasons why the evidence suggests that women tend to outperform men as investors.

LIBOR Termination Extended

The administrator of the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) has extended the termination of some tenors until mid-2023 to allow users more time to change to another reference rate. However, the 1-week and 2-month U.S. dollar LIBOR rates will end on December 31, 2021. In the U.S., SOFR appears to be the new standard, but SOFR is not without it's own issues. SOFR does not allow treasurers to estimate forward interest rates, a major drawback. Even with this shortcoming, companies need to transition from LIBOR before it runs out.

GE's Reverse Stock Split

General Electric, with a share price of about $13 and a market capitalization of $117 billion, currently has 8.8 billion shares outstanding. Given the large number of shares outstanding, the company has proposed a 1-for-8 reverse stock split. The stated purpose of the stock split is to reduce the number of shares outstanding to be more comparable to other companies with a similar market capitalization. Of course, the reverse stock split will also increase the share price by a multiple of eight.

SPACs Explode

Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) have grown dramatically in the past year and a half. The sole purpose of an SPAC is to go public, with the funds raised in the IPO being used to purchase a private company. In 2013, there were 10 SPAC IPOs. This number grew to 248 in 2020. But 2021 is a banner year for SPACs as the growth trend has accelerated. So far this year, there have been over 200 SPACs. During the last week of February, 50 SPACs filed preliminary paperwork for an IPO, implying an annual pace of about 2,000 per year. In fact, today there were 15 SPAC IPOs. 

Buybacks Or Dividends?

The Oracle of Omaha has spoken again: Famed investor Warren Buffett, whose company, Berkshire Hathaway, which has never paid a dividend, spoke out on his preference for buybacks over dividends. Berkshire Hathaway spent $25 billion last year repurchasing its stock, or about 5 percent of its market value. His argument for buybacks is exemplified in Apple stock. Because Apple's buybacks have reduced its shares outstanding, Berkshire's ownership of Apple has grown 10 percent since Buffett first bought Apple stock back in 2016. Berkshire now owns 10 percent more of Apple's assets and future earnings than it did five years ago. This does not account for $11 billion in Apple stock that Berkshire has sold in the interim.   

Granting Credit

As with many other decisions in corporate finance, the decision to grant credit is industry specific. A recent survey indicates that the median company grants credit to about 30 percent of its customers. The 25th percentile company grants credit to 20 percent of its customers and the 75th percentile company grants credit to 50 percent of its customers. Car dealers grant credit about 83 percent of the time, while health care companies grant credit only 30 percent of the time. As with most decisions, remember the decision to grant credit is an NPV decision.

Centerra's Kumtor Sensitivity

Centerra Gold, a Canadian mining company, recently released its NPV analysis of the Kumtor Mine, which is located in Kyrgyzstan. Centerra's release includes the projected cash flows for the next 11 years, the expected life of the mine. Centerra also conducted several sensitivity analyses, including a change in the discount rate, a change in the price of gold, changes in operating and capital costs, and changes in the exchange rate. We should note that Canterra proposes that the discount rate should only be 5 percent. This number seems low to us, especially when analyzing a project in a foreign country.

Activists Fail On Kohl's

Often, when an activist investor takes an interest in a company, the stock price will increase, especially if it is felt that management is performing poorly. Recently, a group of activist investors took a 9.5 percent stake in department store chain Kohl's. The group proposed a slate of nine new board members, which would give it control of the company. Kohl's argued that the new board members would disrupt momentum and rejected the nominations. In a nod to the market's belief that Kohl's is moving in the right direction, the stock price jumped almost 8 percent on the rejection.

2020 Dividends Hit Record

In early 2020, stories in the news were of companies lowering or eliminating dividend payments. However, these stories appear to be overblown concerning dividends. During the year, dividend payments reached a record of $503.1 billion. The economic slowdown did dramatically affect stock repurchases as buybacks in 2020 were only about $300 billion compared to the 3-year average of $700 billion. In the textbook, we discussed how repurchases allow a company more options than dividends when making payments stockholders and corporate payout actions in 2020 appear to support this argument.

High Yield Bond Rates Fall

Through February 10, more than $13 billion of debt with a rating of CCC or lower has been issued, twice the previous record pace at this point in the year. But what is surprising is that the average YTM for the ICE BofA High Yield Index is only 3.97 percent. While this represents a 2.77 percent risk premium over current U.S. Treasury rates, only three years ago the 10-year Treasury yielded 3.23 percent. The current low, or even negative, yields for safe investments has investors chasing riskier investments to increase returns. Another reason for the low yields on junk bonds seems to be that investors believe the COVID-19 slowdown is temporary and the economy will recover quickly as vaccines are more widely distributed. 

GM's Electric Option

A recent Wall Street Journal article discusses GM's managerial option to abandon gas-powered automobile manufacturing and convert to an all-EV product line. In order to achieve this end, GM plans to spend $27 billion by the middle of the decade to convert its plants to manufacture 30 EV models, as well as develop driverless vehicles. Currently, EV vehicles generate only 2 percent of GM's sales and no profits. Because the manufacturing process is so different, GM plans to gut plants, basically revamping everything inside the outer walls. GM's plan is to manufacture only EV vehicles by 2035, a massive change in the company's manufacturing capabilities.

Bitcoin Passes $1 Trillion

This week, the market capitalization of bitcoin topped $1 trillion for the first time. The popular cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of $56,399.99, an increase of 70 percent over the past month. So, what is the future for bitcoin? At this point, analysts are split, with some saying it could reach $200,000 and others arguing that the cryptocurrency is overvalued. One thing is certain: Bitcoin is expanding to mainstream investors, including Tesla, Mastercard, and BNY Mellon. Of course, with this more widespread acceptance, bitcoin's price has become more cyclical, meaning that it is less useful as a diversification asset.

A Short Squeeze

A short sale occurs when an investor sells a stock they don’t own to hopefully buy it back later at a reduced price. Recently, Gamestop and AMC have seen a short squeeze. When you short a stock, if the stock price increases, you must make a margin deposit, that is, make an additional deposit of cash into your account, or repurchase the stock and take the loss. In a short squeeze, a group of investors buy the stock, forcing short sellers to make more deposits or take a loss. In the past two weeks, Gamestop has gained about 1,800 percent, which in our opinion, means the stock is in a bubble.

Monte Carlo In Retirement

In the textbook, we discussed the use of a Monte Carlo simulation in capital budgeting. A common application of a Monte Carlo simulation is using it to determine the probability a retirement portfolio will last for the duration of an individual's life. However, as the article notes, it may be difficult for the average investor to understand "the odds of success" or recognize the difference between a 50 percent probability of success and a 70 percent probability of success. One point the article makes that we would like to reiterate is that flawed inputs can cause erroneous outputs. In other words, like any other model, the end result is only as accurate as the inputs.  

Buyback Increase

During the COVID-19 lockdowns, corporate cash flows dropped dramatically, which led to a decline in both dividends and stock buybacks. Now, companies are beginning to discuss an increase in buybacks. Buybacks in the fourth quarter of 2020 were $116 billion, up from $102 billion in the third quarter. For 2021, buybacks are expected to reach $651 billion, a big jump from 2020's $505 billion.

COVID-19 Bankruptcies

As we mentioned in the textbook, financial leverage is a double edged sword. With the COVID-19 lockdowns, the economy slowed dramatically and the effect on highly leveraged companies was immediate. During 2020, 244 U.S. companies with liabilities over $50 million filed for bankruptcy. This was a 70 percent increase from 2019, and the most since 2009's 293 filings. In what may be more telling, during 2019, 62 percent of companies reported being a net investor. However, by the fall of 2020, only 52 percent of companies reported being a net investor.